Nature recovery, at its core, recognises the intimate interconnections between humans and the living planet. It aims to establish processes to create healthy and resilient ecosystems that benefit both people and nature. However, with growing urgency to address the climate and biodiversity crisis, there are concerns that an increasing focus on emergency politics can end up compromising sustainability transformation by sidelining wider justice, democracy, and well-being goals. Complexity and uncertainty can be considered obstacles to urgent change that need to be mitigated against, and democratic participation something that needs to be “put on hold” in times of crisis.
This project explores how risk and uncertainty impacts the ability of nature recovery efforts to meet multiple goals for people, nature, and climate. It examines the tension between the desire for certainty and urgent action in nature recovery, and embracing the complex and uncertain reality of transformations towards sustainability. This issue is particularly relevant among calls for increasing private investment through market-based mechanisms, which can prioritise more precisely measurable, predictable, and verifiable processes and outcomes for financing nature recovery.
The transdisciplinary project conducts theoretically-informed research which is solutions-focused and can deliver real-world impact. It will work closely with project partners and interest groups to co-design key aspects, ensuring relevant and actionable outcomes for policy and practice. Building on previous work, the research will focus on case study landscapes in the Scottish Highlands and consider these issues within wider UK, European, and international contexts. Project partners include the Loch Abar Mòr (LAM) restoration partnership. Lochaber is a vast region of the west Highlands, covering 4,600 square kilometres, from the shores of the deepest sea lochs to the summit of the UK’s highest mountain. Led by SCOTLAND: The Big Picture, Loch Abar Mòr is a partnership of landholders, stewarding more than 95,000 acres across Lochaber, who have made a 50-year commitment to restore nature, as a solution to climate breakdown and biodiversity loss.
The main activities focus on engaging with practitioners, policy-makers, and financiers involved in the governance of nature recovery at multiple levels:
- Practitioners: Working closely with nature projects and partnerships in the Scottish Highlands to understand how risk and uncertainty is identified, understood and managed within the context of broader goals and priorities.
- Financiers: Examining the risks related to achieving multiple objectives through high integrity nature and carbon markets, how risks are shaped by private finance mechanisms, and how they are mitigated.
- Policy-makers: Investigating how risk and uncertainty is framed in current policy debates focused on scaling up private investment in nature recovery and what this means for achieving multiple goals for transformative change.
Related News Articles

How do perceptions of risk shape nature finance?
Caitlin Hafferty, Postdoctoral Researcher in the Centre, has recently been awarded an Oxford Policy Engagement Network (OPEN) Fellowship to conduct a project on understanding the impact of risk and uncertainty on high-integrity nature markets in the UK.

From Urgency to Participation: It is important that nature recovery initiatives can ‘slow down’ to embrace community engagement & local knowledge.
Allegra Bundy, MSc student, reflects on the participatory process and key findings of her dissertation project, ‘From Urgency to Participation: Navigating Complexities in Nature Recovery in the Scottish Highlands’.
Related Research Themes

Society
Encompassing the governance and socio-cultural dimensions of nature recovery.
Related Outputs
Unpacking the politics of Nature-based Solutions governance: Making space for transformative change
Pre-print paper on the politics of Nature-based Solutions governance for transformative change. This paper finds that dominant framings can end up undermining, rather than supporting, the changes that are needed for transformation to happen. Techno-centric and market-oriented approaches, perceptions of risk and uncertainty, and “democracy washing” risk perpetuating power imbalances and superficial participation. Making space […]
Unpacking the politics of Nature-based Solutions governance: Making space for transformative change
Nature-based Solutions (NbS) have gained global attention for their transformative potential to simultaneously address biodiversity loss, climate change, and human well-being. However, there are concerns that dominant framings reinforce vested interests, marginalise alternative perspectives, and lead to persistent patterns of inequality and injustice. While participatory governance of NbS is widely acclaimed to support more equitable […]


