Science (2025)
Climate change is bringing more severe and longer-lasting droughts to many locations around the world. Some ecosystems have shown resilience to increasing drought, but this could change as droughts become more severe. Ohlert et al. assessed drought effects with a rainfall-exclusion experiment distributed across 74 grasslands and shrublands on six continents. On average, primary productivity declined by 29% in moderate-drought years, but effects did not compound over multiyear droughts. Extreme droughts (those falling outside the historic range of rainfall variability) caused much higher productivity declines and lower recovery, especially in drier locations and those with lower plant diversity. This study adds to growing evidence that future climate extremes will likely affect ecosystems in new and concerning ways.
